OPINION: By Romeo Mabandha
On a balance of probability, National Unity Platform party’s Joyce Bagala Ntwatwa still has an upper hand over National Resistance Movement’s party Judith Nabakooba; even if they are to go back to fresh elections as ordered by High Court. Looking at favoring factors herein;
1. Zaake factor: I can assure Ugandans if the by-election is to happen, the Mityana Municipality Member of Parliament will make sure something happens to him and it will all end in Bagala’s favor. Being what he is and considering what he usually does (comical and provocative). A Zaake arrest is enough to hand Joyce Bagala a landslide victory.
2. The LC5 Mityana district, Mr. Mugisha Patrick factor. This soft-spoken gentleman is another clear-cut opposition political mafia with a character reserve for high-end military Generals (operates like Yona Musinguzi – MP Ntungamo Municipality). Soft but interesting with executing operations/ missions. He will play his part well to deliver Bagala victory.
3. Mityana is a fast-growing opposition ground. This is witnessed from the likes of Zaake’s youth influence, Hon. Kalwanga’s opposition cards are a replica of a movie “house of cards” that is if one is to understand this gentleman’s political steps.
4. Lands docket. Hon. Nabakooba heads the lands Ministry where the turns in the Mailo land issues were being proposed by her junior Minister Mayanja. The recent pokes in land mafia deals led to the recent suspension of Mubende and Wakiso land officers from office. Mubende is a little chill because Abid Alam with his agents is still at rest but Wakiso is a harbor for land mafias with bigger interests, therefore, a No, Go, Zone. Mafias are likely to work with the opposition to humiliate Nabakooba a diversion that will give Bagala a plus.
5. Nakooba has been seen as a Museveni’s favorite Muganda Minister, just like Ruth Nankabirwa of Kiboga and Muyingo of Bamunanika-Luwero. This was observed from President Museveni’s sympathy speech to reports from media on how NUP had swept Buganda in the previous 2021 general elections.
Museveni said, “Why do you throw out good people like Nabakooba? someone who likes development!” This statement rang bells in the political space and with no surprise, we saw Nabakooba bounce back in the cabinet. Other Baganda ministers that lost their seats and never returned to the cabinet might have felt different and this might work against her.
6. Bagala so far has not been bad in the eyes of lay voters; she has played her cards better with no suspected intrigue, sijui Muhoozi project…No. She is a self-made opposition leader, a stand that agitated Ugandans want at the moment and this may favor her as a person of political integrity.
7. Lastly, It’s on record that Hon. Nabakooba had no confidence in her own case when she publically stated that she doesn’t have enough evidence to pin Joyce Bagala on a multi-election violation but she would rather base her allegation on hearsay as told by her agents. She walked this talk. However, it’s under the Court’s discretion to determine the matter based on the law, not facts as they literally appear and prayed for. Justice Baguma agrees with the petitioner’s counsel, orders fresh elections thus staying Joyce’s Jubilations.
Surely everything aside, it is a wrong button for the NRM to reclaim the Mityana Woman MP seat. It’s going to expose the NRM party linen like the use of state machinery as NUP will constantly provoke them.
Romeo Mabandha is a Ugandan National and a Political Commentator.